More than 419 million NFC chipsets will ship in 2012, according to a new study from ABI Research. “NFC chipset shipments and revenue will continue to grow steadily over the next five years, as the market adapts to this new technology,” says senior analyst Douglas McEuen. However, similar to revenue in most semiconductor markets, NFC revenue is offset by declining unit ASPs. By 2012, ABI Research forecasts that the NFC chipset ASP will decline to $0.97, for a total market revenue of $406 million.
“Transportation systems are implementing contactless payment schemes, wireless device content management is growing, and connectivity options are escalating without offering clear ease-of-use focused applications,” continues McEuen. “NFC technology, aided by NFC IC short-range communication capability, addresses each of these issues with proven technology in an industry-standardized format.”
ABI Research’s forecasting methodology includes a top-down Bass Curve regression analysis, as well as a bottom-up approach to the potential of the market. Both market views are important, says McEuen, considering that operator demand for a standardized approach to NFC handset architecture significantly pushed the emerging NFC industry toward a standard platform implementation, while simultaneously delaying the potential for NFC deployment.
In North America, ABI Research sees demand for handset application directives from operators, as well as from third parties. Europe – though lagging in the contactless RFID payment space due to payment infrastructure constraints tied to the EMV (Europay, MasterCard, and Visa) deployments – is extremely well-suited for NFC. This region is a highly transit-centric environment full of content and mobile payment opportunities across its GSM family networks.
The recent ABI Research report Near Field Communication Semiconductors provides a detailed examination of the NFC chipset and modem, examining both short- and long-term market implications and providing key vendor profiles and market forecasts through 2012.
It forms part of three ABI Research Services: Mobile and Contactless Commerce, Short-Range Wireless, and Wireless Semiconductors.
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